[7] International ary Fund,World Economic Outlook Database,April2012(Washington,DC:IMF,2013).
[8] Jim O'Neill and Alessio Terzi,&aging trade patterns,unchanging European and global governance,"Brussels,Bruegel Working Paper,February2014,.
[9] See Peter Zeihan,The Aidental Superpower:The Next Generation of A Pre-eing Global Disorder(New York:Hachette,2014).
[10] Jonathan Kirshner,Aer the Financial Crisis(Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2014),.
[11] Michael Mandelbaum,The Case for Goliath(New York:Public Affairs,2005),.
[12] Robert O.Keohane and Joseph S.Nye,&aralization and fragmentation:The club model of multilateral cooperation and proble legitimacy,"John F.Kennedy School of Governy,Faculty Research Working Paper Series,RWP01-004(February2001).
[13] See J.S.Nye,"Maintaining the non-proliferation regiional Organization,Winter1981,-38.
[14] "Market value of the largest inter panies worldwide as of May2013,"Statista;available value-of-the-largest-inter-panies-worldwide/.Note:Yahoo and Yahoo-Japan have been treated as one entity for the purposes of pany rankings.
[15] Jonathan Zittrain,"No Barack Obatrol of the inter over to China,"The New Republic224,March24,2014.
[16] Richard J.Danzig,Surviving on a Diet of Poisoned Fruit:Reducing the National Security Risks of America's Cyber Dependencies(Washington,DC:Center for New Ay,2014),.
[17] Moises Naim,The End of Power(New York:Basic Books,2013),.
[18] Quoted in Nathan Gardels,&aer the end of power,"New Perspectives Quarterly,Summer2013,.
[19] David Brooks,"The leaderless doctrine,"New York Times,March14,2014.
第七章 结论
任何试图评估在未来几十年中美国实力的人都应该记得此前有多少同样的努力曾得出远离实际的结论。美国对20世纪70年代苏联实力和20世纪80年代日本实力的夸张估计是极好的教训。如今，一些分析家们充满信心地预测，中国将取代美国成为全球领导国家，而另一些分析家们同样自信地认为，“美国还只在其施展实力的开始阶段，21世纪仍将是美国的世纪”。[1]但无法预料的事件可以扰乱这样的预测。未来有许多可能，绝非一种，意外、误算和特异的人为选择将导致不同的结局。